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发表于 2018-12-6 16:54:28 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 不放弃ing 于 2018-12-10 10:54 编辑

Trevize nodded. "That sounds impressive. He was wrong about theMule, but even allowing for that, it's impressive. Still, it has anuncomfortable magical feel to it. Any conjurer can do tricks."











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"No conjurer could predict centuries into the future.""No conjurer could really do what he makes you think he does.""Come, Golan. I can't think of any trick that would allow me topredict what will happen five centuries from now.""Nor can you think of a trick that will allow a conjurer to readthe contents of a message hidden in a pseudo-tesseract on an unmannedorbiting satellite. Just the same, I've seen a conjurer do it. Has itever occurred to you that the Time Capsule, along with the Hari Seldonsimulacrum, may be rigged by the government?"Pelorat looked as though he were revolted by the suggestion. "Theywouldn't do that."Trevize made a scornful sound.
Pelorat said, "And they'd be caught if they tried.""I'm not at all sure of that. The point is, though, that we don'tknow how psychohistory works at all.""I don't know how that computer works, but I know it works.""That's because others know how it works. How would it be if noone knew how it worked? Then, if it stopped working for any reason, wewould be helpless to do anything about it. And if psychohistory suddenlystopped working ""The Second Foundationers know the workings of psychohistory.""How do you know that, Janov?""So it is said.""Anything can be said. Ah, we have the distance of theForbidden World's star, and, I hope, very accurately. Let's considerthe figures."He stared at them for a long time, his lips moving occasionally,as though he were doing some rough calculations in his head. Finally,he said, without lifting his eyes, "What's Bliss doing?""Sleeping, old chap," said Pelorat. Then, defensively, "Sheneeds sleep, Golan. Maintaining herself as part of Gaiaacross hyperspace is energy-consuming.""I suppose so," said Trevize, and turned back to the computer. Heplaced his hands on the desk and muttered, "I'll let it go in severalJumps and have it recheck each time." Then he withdrew them againand said, "I'm serious, Janov. What do you know aboutpsychohistory?"Pelorat looked taken aback. "Nothing. Being a historian,which I am, after a fashion, is worlds different from being apsychohistorian. Of course, I know the two fundamental basics ofpsychohistory, but everyone knows that.""Even I do. The first requirement is that the number of human beingsinvolved must be large enough to make statistical treatment valid. Buthow large is `large enough'?"Pelorat said, "The latest estimate of the Galactic populationis something like ten quadrillion, and that's probably anunderestimate. Surely, that's large enough.""How do you know?""Because psychohistory does work, Golan. No matter howyou chop logic, it does work.""And the second requirement," said Trevize, "is that human beingsnot be aware of psychohistory, so that the knowledge does not skew theirreactions. But they are aware of psychohistory.""Only of its bare existence, old chap. That's not whatcounts. The second requirement is that human beings not be awareof the predictions of psychohistory and that they arenot except that the Second Foundationers are supposed to be awareof them, but they're a special case.""And upon those two requirements alone , the science ofpsychohistory has been developed. That's hard to believe.""Not out of those two requirements alone, " said Pelorat. "Thereare advanced mathematics and elaborate statistical methods. Thestory is if you want tradition that Hari Seldon devisedpsychohistory by modeling it upon the kinetic theory of gases. Each atomor molecule in a gas moves randomly so that we can't know the position orvelocity of any one of them. Nevertheless, using statistics, we can workout the rules governing their overall behavior with great precision. Inthe same way, Seldon intended to work out the overall behavior of humansocieties even though the solutions would not apply to the behavior ofindividual human beings.""Perhaps, but human beings aren't atoms.""True," said Pelorat. "A human being has consciousness and his behavioris sufficiently complicated to make it appear to be free will. How Seldonhandled that I haven't any idea, and I'm sure I couldn't understandit even if someone who knew tried to explain it to me but hedid it."Trevize said, "And the whole thing depends on dealing with people whoare both numerous and unaware. Doesn't that seem to you a quicksandishfoundation on which to build an enormous mathematical structure? Ifthose requirements are not truly met, then everything collapses.""But since the Plan hasn't collapsed ""Or, if the requirements are not exactly false or inadequate butsimply weaker than they should be, psychohistory might work adequatelyfor centuries and then, upon reaching some particular crisis, wouldcollapse as it did temporarily in the time of the Mule. Orwhat if there is a third requirement?""What third requirement?" asked Pelorat, frowning slightly.
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